Nevada Caucus Wrap Up

Posted: February 6, 2012 in Politics, Ron Paul
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The Nevada Caucus

As I predicted last week, Newt is on his way down. (Hooray!)

The Nevada caucus results are being reported as follows

1. Mitt Romney (50% ish)
2. Newt Gingrich (21% ish)
3. Ron Paul (19% ish)
4. Rick Santorum (10%ish)

 

Mitt Romney- No real surprise here, the guy has been campaigning in Nevada since 2008. He has huge Mormon and LDS support in this state and was the heavy favorite. Give him credit though, he tried his best this past week to alienate and piss off large groups of people. Fortunately for him most of the country doesn’t pay attention or care about the election process, and the poor people that he was busy throwing under the bus are too busy trying to feed themselves to give two shits what Mitt For Brains has to say about them.

New Campaign Slogan:

Mitt Romney 2012: “Because Rush Limbaugh Says The Most Important Thing For Uhmurica Is To Get Obama Out Of Office”

Newt Gingrich- Every time this guy talks his campaign should play “With arms wide open” by Creed. I know you are a swinger and all but quit trying to hug the entire world Newt. (He constantly opens his arms up like he wants a big hug when he speaks, in case you are lost) The Ging is going down, and I don’t mean on a plate of cheeseburgers. He did ok in Nevada but not a strong 2nd, he barely put any distance between himself and 3rd place. For the self proclaimed clear alternative to Mitt “he sure isn’t shaping up” (pun intended) to be much more than a flavor of the moment (part 2). I heard an interesting quote this week, “the difference between the past and history is that the past is what happened. History is the story of what happened.” Newt is a self proclaimed historian (notice a theme of self proclamation). This means he tells stories about events in the past, the stories don’t have to be accurate or true, just repeated often enough and loudly. Apparently adding in some “air hugs” doesn’t hurt credibility either.

New campaign slogan

Newt Gingrich 2012: “We will go to the moon, everyone will be hugged, and the sanctity of open marriage will be protected.”

Ron Paul- Ron came in 2nd in 2008 with 14% of the vote, this go around he got 19%. Not exactly a barn burner performance for Paul, but something to hang his hat on. As The Ging continues his demise Ron will begin to gain favor with some of his defectors, after Ging has spent so much effort trashing Romney it seems unlikely his lost support will go to Mitt. Some will travel to Santorum by way of Glenn Beck’s relentless promotion of him. Ron is poised to gain the most as the campaign moves on, hopefully he’s ready to take advantage. Maine and Minnesota are key places to watch for Paul.

 

New Campaign Slogan

Ron Paul 2012: “You probably haven’t seen me on the news or in the newspapers, but I’m the only guy in this race that is different than Obama.”

Rick Santorum- Bad performance in Nevada for Rick. He is betting on Colorado as his next stand against the Romney machine. If he does not succeed, he is out. Nothing less than 2nd place is acceptable in Colorado for Rick, he is losing his traction from the early states. Despite trying to start arguments over what he feels are great points in the debates, he has continued to show his Big Government, Big Spending tendencies and his feelings of inequality toward homosexuals and opposing religions. Not to mention, he is a warmonger, a Santorum Presidency would undoubtedly lead to war with Iran and likely 1 or 2 other places of his choosing.

New campaign slogan

Rick Santorum 2012: ” Ok, so Jim Bob Duggar didn’t convince you I was the best choice? Hmm, I will declare 5 wars on day one, all without congress! How about that?”

Projection for the coming weeks:

February is considered a slow month for the campaign. I think it is critical, we will potentially see one more candidate drop out in February. I think it will be Santorum. He may hang on until Super Tuesday but I think Colorado will boot him from the race sooner than that. Newt is going to decline, much slower than his first decline, but he’s still on the way down. If Santorum drops out I think it benefits Gingrich the most, his supporters will not go to Ron Paul or Mitt Romney so they take Gingrich de facto. That could offer Gingrich a temporary boost. If Santorum hangs around until Super Tuesday it benefits Ron Paul the most. Santorum takes votes from Gingrich and he is one more voice and pile of money going after Romney. However, if Santorum wins Colorado, he will stay in the race at least to Super Tuesday if not all the way to Tampa. February could be make or break for him. But, there are always surprises. It will be interesting to see what dirt comes out about a candidate next, and whether it sticks.

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Comments
  1. […] I previously predicted (in this post) Rick Santorum was the latest canidate to drop out of the race for the Presidency. Granted my […]

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