Analysis of Florida

Posted: February 1, 2012 in Politics, Ron Paul
Tags: , , , , ,

Florida didn’t shape up quite how I predicted previously in my South Carolina Predictions post, but close.

Mitt Romney- Winner

Newt Gingrich- Second

Rick Santorum- 3rd

Ron Paul- 4th

Brief analysis.

Florida was all about Gingrich and Romney, mostly because somehow Gingrich duped South Carolina into giving him the win, and he had the momentum heading into Florida.

Newt-

I do not expect Gingrich to hold up to the continuing scrutiny that he will receive beyond Florida. He will fall hard, again. The only thing that will prop him up is the fact that he has a few huge donors that are funding a media blitz for him. Undoubtedly Newt has promised these donors some favors if he is the one that gets into office.

Romney

Mitt will continue to show strength but I predict he will begin to lose favorability as the race moves on and some of the Western states begin to effect the race a little more. He will still have a strong showing in just about every state, after all, the guy has a huge pile of cash.

Santorum

I was a little surprised that he didn’t skip South Carolina and campaign harder in Florida. He is working with much smaller funds and it seemed to me that more time and money in Florida would have been better for him. Rick is on the ropes, he keeps saying he is on for the long haul, but in my opinion he is the next to drop out. He did a lot better last month with donation totals and is becoming a more accepted candidate by the electorate. He could hang around until the convention if he does well in a couple of upcoming states, I just don’t think that will happen.

Ron Paul

Ol’ Ronny Boy, he skipped Florida. Not that it seemed any different, he doesn’t get national coverage when he does campaign in a state.  His base continues to build, his game plan for focusing on caucus states is not traditional and has not yielded a Presidential nominee in the past. But keep in mind, Ron Paul is not a traditional candidate, his supporters are not traditional supporters, nothing about his campaign fits the norm. I still feel strongly that he will pull it off against all odds. To my knowledge, there has not been a race for the nomination quite like this before, so a new and different strategy might just work. Keep an eye on Maine who has a week long caucus where Ron will likely pick up several delegates. He has also been campaigning hard in Nevada where large crowds have been highly receptive and his support seems to be swelling.

In summary, I’m starting to believe that if Gingrich survives the next 2-3 states he will stay in until the convention.  That will give us 3 candidates for the nominee at the convention. Paul, Romney, and Gingrich. If Santorum drops in the next month or month and a half, the national media will begin calling for Ron Paul to get out and let Gingrich and Romney fight it out. He will not oblige.

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Comments
  1. If only Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney were to simultaneously drop out of the race…

    • swburke21 says:

      They are all 3 so ready for war with Iran, I say the next debate should be held on board the USS Enterprise. It is currently floating off the straights of Hormuz. See how ready they are then.

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